Assessing vaccination strategies for the COVID-19 epidemic in Minas Gerais (Brazil)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5433/1679-0375.2021v42n1Suplp35Keywords:
Epidemology, Dynamical systems, SEIR modelAbstract
In this work we analyze the effectiveness of vaccination strategies for the COVID-19 epidemic in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais. Firstly we study the effectiveness of general vaccination in the decreasing of the number of infected individuals using a traditional non structured SEIR model. Secondly we consider an age-structured SEIR model with three age classes (youngster, adult and elderly) and we analyze the current strategy in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais, of focusing the vaccination on the elderly group. We conclude by showing this strategy to be mistaken and that a vaccination focusing on the age group of the adults would be much more efficient in decreasing the total number of infected individuals.Metrics
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References
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ZHOU, L.; WANG, Y.; XIAO, Y.; LI, M.Y. Global dynamics of a discrete age-structured sir epidemic model with applications to measles vaccination strategies, Mathematical biosciences, New York, v. 308, p. 27-37, 2019.
ZHOU, Y.; FERGOLA, P. Dynamics of a discrete age-structured sis models, Discrete & Continuous Dynamical Systems-B, Springfield, v. 4, n. 3, p. 841, 2004.
CASTILHO, C.; GONDIM, J. A. M.; MARCHESIN, M.; SABETI, M. Assessing the efficiency of different control strategies for the COVID-19 epidemic. EJDE San Marcos, v. 64, p. 1-17, 2020.
CASTILLO-CHAVEZ, C.; HETHCOTE, H.W.; ANDREASEN, V.; LEVIN, S.A.; LIU, W.M. Epidemiological models with age structure, proportionate mixing, and cross-immunity, Journal of mathematical biology, New York, v. 27, n. 3, p. 233-258, 1989.
COVID-19 Coronavirus pandemic. Wordometers, [ S.~l.], apr. 2021. Available from: https://www.worldo meters.info/coronavirus. Access in: abr. 2021.
IDOETA, P. A. A matemática das UTIs: 3 desafios para evitar que falte cuidado intensivo durante a pandemia no Brasil. BBC News Brazil, São Paulo, 6 apr. 2020. Available from: https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/brasil-52137553. Access in: may 2021
INABA, H. Mathematical analysis of an age-structured sir epidemic model with vertical transmission, Discrete \& Continuous Dynamical Systems-B, Springfield, v. 6, n. 1, p. 69, 2006.
KEELING, M. J.; ROHANI, P. Modeling infectious diseases in humans and animals. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2011.
MARTCHEVA, M. An Introduction to Mathematical Epidemiology, [London]: Springer, 2015.
MINAS GERAIS. Secretaria de Estado de Saúde. Informe epidemiológico Coronavírus. Belo Horizonte, SES, 2020a. Available from: https://coronavirus.saude.mg.gov.br/painel. Access in: mar. 2021.
MINAS GERAIS. Secretaria de Estado de Saúde de Minas Gerais. Boletim epidemiológico Coronavírus. Belo Horizonte, SES, 2020b. Available from: http://coronavirus.saude.mg.gov.br. Access in: apr. 2021.
SHULGIN, B.; STONE, L; AGUR, Z. Pulse vaccination strategy en the sir epidemic model, Bulletin Mathematical Biology, [London], v. 60, p. 1123-1148, 1998.
SIDRA. Pesquisa estatística do registro civil. Rio de Janeiro: IBGE, 2020. Available from: https://sidra.ibge.gov.br/tabela /2684. Access in: apr. 2021.
THIEME, H. Disease extinction and disease persistence in age structured epidemic models, Nonlinear Analysis, Theory, Methods and Applications, Elmsford, v. 47, n. 9, p. 6181-6194, 2001.
ZHOU, L.; WANG, Y.; XIAO, Y.; LI, M.Y. Global dynamics of a discrete age-structured sir epidemic model with applications to measles vaccination strategies, Mathematical biosciences, New York, v. 308, p. 27-37, 2019.
ZHOU, Y.; FERGOLA, P. Dynamics of a discrete age-structured sis models, Discrete & Continuous Dynamical Systems-B, Springfield, v. 4, n. 3, p. 841, 2004.
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Published
2021-07-20
How to Cite
Marchesin, M. D., & Sabeti, M. (2021). Assessing vaccination strategies for the COVID-19 epidemic in Minas Gerais (Brazil). Semina: Ciências Exatas E Tecnológicas, 42(1Supl), 35–44. https://doi.org/10.5433/1679-0375.2021v42n1Suplp35
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