O Regime de Metas Inflacionárias: Teoria e Evidências no Brasil 2002-2008
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5433/2317-627X.2013v1n2p118Palavras-chave:
metas de inflação, BrasilResumo
O artigo analisa aspectos teóricos e institucionais do regime de metas de inflação com foco na experiência brasileira durante o período 2002-2008. De acordo com a análise do desempenho macroeconômico como taxa de crescimento, taxa de inflação e endividamento público, demonstra-se que as opções de política econômica no período foram corretas e conduziram o país ao crescimento sustentado. Não obstante, diante das estatísticas do período, verificou-se empiricamente o mecanismo de transmissão da política monetária, de forma a se compreender como, através do comprometimento da política econômica com o regime de metas, automaticamente todas as demais varáveis macroeconômicas chaves são estabilizadas, conduzindo a um equilíbrio dinâmico da economia. O estudo também constata a estrutura a termo da taxa de juro no período.Métricas
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Referências
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BARRO, R. J.; GORDON, D. B. A positive theory of monetary policy in a natural rate model. Journal of Political Economy, v. 91, n. 3, p. 589-619, 1983.
BERNANKE, B. S.; GERTLER, M. Monetary policy and asset price volatility. In: SYMPOSIUM SPONSORED BY THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Aug. 26-28, 1999. Proceedings ... Jackson Hole, 1999.
BERNANKE, B.; MIHOV, I. Measuring monetary policy. Quartely Journal of Economics, v. 103, p. 869–902, 1998.
BERNANKE, B; MISHKIN, F. S. Inflation targeting: a new framework for monetary policy? Journal of Economic Perspectives, v. 11, n. 2, p. 97-116, 1997.
BOGDANSKI, J.; TOMBINI, A. A.; WERLANG, S. R. Implementing inflation targeting in Brazil. Brasília, DF: Banco Central do Brasil, jul. 2000. p. 1-29, 2000. (Working Papers Series).
CALVO, G. On the time consistency of optimal policy in the monetary economy. Econometrica, v. 46, n. 4, p. 1411-1428, 1978.
CARNEIRO, D. D.; WU, T. Y. H. Contas externas e política monetária. Revista Brasileira de Economia, v. 58 ,n. 3, p. 301-323,2004.
CAVALCANTI, M. A.; VONBUN, C Reservas internacionais ótimas para o Brasil: uma análise simples de custo-benefício para o período 1999-2007. Econ. Apl. v. 12, n. 3, p.463-498, Jul./Set. 2008.
CÉSPEDES, B., LIMA, E; MAKA, A. 'Monetary policy, inflation and the level of economic activity in brazil after the real plan: stylized facts from svar models, Revista Brasileira de Economia, v. 62, p.123–160, 2008.
CLARIDA, R.; GALÍ, J.; GERTLER, M. Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: evidence and some theory. Quarterly Journal of Economics, v. 115, n. 1, p. 147-180, 2000.
CHRISTIANO, L. J., EICHENBAUM, M.; EVANS, C, Monetary policy shocks: what have we learned and to what end?, In: Handbook of Macroeconomics. North Holland: Elsevier Science, 1999.
DEDOLA, L.; LIPPI, F. 'The monetary transmission mechanism: evidence from the industries of five oecd countries.' European Economic Review, v. 49, p.1543–1569, 2005.
EPSTEIN, G A; YELDAN E A. Beyond Inflation Targeting, Northhampton, MA, Edward Elgar, 2009.
FERNANDES, M.; TORO, J O Mecanismo de transmissão monetária na economia pós-Plano Real. Revista Brasileira de Economia, v. 59, n. 1, p.5-32, jan./mar. 2005.
FIGUEIREDO, F. M.; FERREIRA, T.P. Os preços administrados e a inflação no Brasil. Brasília, DF: Banco Central do Brasil, dez. 2002. p. 1-32. (Working Papers Series).
FISCHER, S. Modern Central Banking. In: CAPIE, F.; GOODHART, C.; FISCHER, S.; SCHNADT, N. (Ed.). The future of Central Banking. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994.
GARFINKEL, M. R.; OH, S. Strategic discipline in monetary policy with private information: optimal targeting horizons. American Economic Review, v. 83, n. 1, p. 99¬117, 1993.
GOLDFAJN, I et. al. Inflation Targeting, Debt, and the Brazilian Experience, 1999-2003. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2005.
KING, M. The inflation target ten years on. Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, v. 42, n. 4, p. 459-474, 2002.
KYDLAND, F.; PRESCOTT, E. C. Rules rather than discretion: the inconsistency optimal plans. Journal of Political Economy, v. 85, n. 3, p. 473-492, 1977.
LUCAS, R. 'Econometric policy evaluation: a critique.', Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, v.1, p. 19-46, 1976.
MINELLA, A. Monetary policy and inflation in brazil (1975-2000): a var estimation. Revista Brasileira de Economia, v.57, 605–635, 2003.
MINELLA, A.; FREITAS, P.; GOLDFAJN, I.; MUINHOS, M. Inflation targeting in Brazil: constructing credibility under exchange rate volatility. Brasília, DF: Banco Central do Brasil, nov. 2003. p. 1-32. (Working Papers Series, n. 77).
MISHKIN, F. S. What should Central Banks do? Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, v. 82, n. 6, p. 1-13, 2000.
SIMS, C. A., STOCK, J. H., WATSON, M. W. 'Inference in linear time series models with some unit roots.' Econometrica, v. 58, p.113–144, 1990.
SVENSSON, L. E. O. Commentary on Meyer: practical problems and obstacles to inflation targeting. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review. v.86, n. 4, p. 161-164, 2004.
TAYLOR, J. B. Discretion versus policy rules in practice. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, p. 195-214, Dec. 1993.
TODA, H. Y.; YAMAMOTO, T. 'Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes.' Journal of Econometric. v. 66, p. 225–250, 1995.
BARRO, R. J.; GORDON, D. B. A positive theory of monetary policy in a natural rate model. Journal of Political Economy, v. 91, n. 3, p. 589-619, 1983.
BERNANKE, B. S.; GERTLER, M. Monetary policy and asset price volatility. In: SYMPOSIUM SPONSORED BY THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Aug. 26-28, 1999. Proceedings ... Jackson Hole, 1999.
BERNANKE, B.; MIHOV, I. Measuring monetary policy. Quartely Journal of Economics, v. 103, p. 869–902, 1998.
BERNANKE, B; MISHKIN, F. S. Inflation targeting: a new framework for monetary policy? Journal of Economic Perspectives, v. 11, n. 2, p. 97-116, 1997.
BOGDANSKI, J.; TOMBINI, A. A.; WERLANG, S. R. Implementing inflation targeting in Brazil. Brasília, DF: Banco Central do Brasil, jul. 2000. p. 1-29, 2000. (Working Papers Series).
CALVO, G. On the time consistency of optimal policy in the monetary economy. Econometrica, v. 46, n. 4, p. 1411-1428, 1978.
CARNEIRO, D. D.; WU, T. Y. H. Contas externas e política monetária. Revista Brasileira de Economia, v. 58 ,n. 3, p. 301-323,2004.
CAVALCANTI, M. A.; VONBUN, C Reservas internacionais ótimas para o Brasil: uma análise simples de custo-benefício para o período 1999-2007. Econ. Apl. v. 12, n. 3, p.463-498, Jul./Set. 2008.
CÉSPEDES, B., LIMA, E; MAKA, A. 'Monetary policy, inflation and the level of economic activity in brazil after the real plan: stylized facts from svar models, Revista Brasileira de Economia, v. 62, p.123–160, 2008.
CLARIDA, R.; GALÍ, J.; GERTLER, M. Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: evidence and some theory. Quarterly Journal of Economics, v. 115, n. 1, p. 147-180, 2000.
CHRISTIANO, L. J., EICHENBAUM, M.; EVANS, C, Monetary policy shocks: what have we learned and to what end?, In: Handbook of Macroeconomics. North Holland: Elsevier Science, 1999.
DEDOLA, L.; LIPPI, F. 'The monetary transmission mechanism: evidence from the industries of five oecd countries.' European Economic Review, v. 49, p.1543–1569, 2005.
EPSTEIN, G A; YELDAN E A. Beyond Inflation Targeting, Northhampton, MA, Edward Elgar, 2009.
FERNANDES, M.; TORO, J O Mecanismo de transmissão monetária na economia pós-Plano Real. Revista Brasileira de Economia, v. 59, n. 1, p.5-32, jan./mar. 2005.
FIGUEIREDO, F. M.; FERREIRA, T.P. Os preços administrados e a inflação no Brasil. Brasília, DF: Banco Central do Brasil, dez. 2002. p. 1-32. (Working Papers Series).
FISCHER, S. Modern Central Banking. In: CAPIE, F.; GOODHART, C.; FISCHER, S.; SCHNADT, N. (Ed.). The future of Central Banking. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994.
GARFINKEL, M. R.; OH, S. Strategic discipline in monetary policy with private information: optimal targeting horizons. American Economic Review, v. 83, n. 1, p. 99¬117, 1993.
GOLDFAJN, I et. al. Inflation Targeting, Debt, and the Brazilian Experience, 1999-2003. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2005.
KING, M. The inflation target ten years on. Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, v. 42, n. 4, p. 459-474, 2002.
KYDLAND, F.; PRESCOTT, E. C. Rules rather than discretion: the inconsistency optimal plans. Journal of Political Economy, v. 85, n. 3, p. 473-492, 1977.
LUCAS, R. 'Econometric policy evaluation: a critique.', Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, v.1, p. 19-46, 1976.
MINELLA, A. Monetary policy and inflation in brazil (1975-2000): a var estimation. Revista Brasileira de Economia, v.57, 605–635, 2003.
MINELLA, A.; FREITAS, P.; GOLDFAJN, I.; MUINHOS, M. Inflation targeting in Brazil: constructing credibility under exchange rate volatility. Brasília, DF: Banco Central do Brasil, nov. 2003. p. 1-32. (Working Papers Series, n. 77).
MISHKIN, F. S. What should Central Banks do? Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, v. 82, n. 6, p. 1-13, 2000.
SIMS, C. A., STOCK, J. H., WATSON, M. W. 'Inference in linear time series models with some unit roots.' Econometrica, v. 58, p.113–144, 1990.
SVENSSON, L. E. O. Commentary on Meyer: practical problems and obstacles to inflation targeting. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review. v.86, n. 4, p. 161-164, 2004.
TAYLOR, J. B. Discretion versus policy rules in practice. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, p. 195-214, Dec. 1993.
TODA, H. Y.; YAMAMOTO, T. 'Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes.' Journal of Econometric. v. 66, p. 225–250, 1995.
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19-12-2013
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Rabelo, T. C. da S. (2013). O Regime de Metas Inflacionárias: Teoria e Evidências no Brasil 2002-2008. Economia & Região, 1(2), 118–140. https://doi.org/10.5433/2317-627X.2013v1n2p118
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